This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which will be the previous UFC on FOX card due to this new ESPN deal. We are back to having smaller prize pools for this particular event but there’s still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entrance with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a nice top trophy are always my favorite competitions to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a fantastic quantity of play in games. Listed below are a few plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is nearly always the best struggle to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the main event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is your must play of the two. He’s a -335 favorite and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score tremendously and based on Vegas he’s a 77% probability of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even have a high floor, but he probably has the maximum ceiling on the card as well. This is where I will be starting my money lineup weekly.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK fight on the gambling odds now. Usually when that occurs we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s ownership will go down because of this and that’s what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes at the highest pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He does not even need a finish to score 100+ points and that’s the reason why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he should score well.
Underdog drama of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s only +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I love the value we are getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to become one of the very popular underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be by knockout so not just could he have the win, but he would score highly as well. I think if he can win this fight then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favourite underdog of this week for that reason.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I think he loses, I’m actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him because he’s $9.3k and with his fighting style that I don’t see him becoming over 10x that salary. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus much in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. When he scores around that region again in this fight, then that pretty much kills your chances at winning a GPP as the other men because $9k range likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every struggle, my personal approaches & suggestions, and also my pick prediction for every single fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 47-28 for +169.81u (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the previous 7 months!)

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