NASCAR AT ATLANTA ODDS, PICKS 2019: MODEL SAYS CHASE ELLIOTT SURPRISES AT FOLDS OF HONOR QUIKTRIP 500

The 2019 NASCAR Program kicks into high gear Sunday with the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET for the 325-lap race along with defending champion Kevin Harvick is the 4-1 favorite in the latest 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 chances. Falling in just behind him with 6-1 NASCAR in Atlanta chances are Joey Logano and Kyle Busch, who finished in the top four final week in the Daytona 500. Before you make your 2019 QuikTrip 500 selections and NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, make sure you have a look at the projected leaderboard in the proven computer version at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and current results into consideration.

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It made some enormous calls in NASCAR last year, including nailing wins for Kyle Busch in Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. And it’s off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a leading competition from the beginning. Anyone who has followed its picks is way, way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Atlanta Motor Speedway are in his blood. His model simulated the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 a total of 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For the 2019 QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta, we can tell you that the model is high on Chase Elliott, making a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off at 10-1 odds. Elliott doesn’t have a lengthy history at Atlanta, but he’s had success there at all three of his starts at the track since linking the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. He has finished inside the top 10 in every one of those races and even earned a top-five end in 2017.

Before joining NASCAR’s top circuit, Elliott had two top-five finishes at Atlanta in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Elliott is a Georgia native and his father, Bill Elliott, won at NASCAR’s highest level at Atlanta Motor Speedway five times in his career, so it’s something of a home track for the 23-year-old. The model anticipates him to ride that advantage towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Another shocker from the model: Kyle Busch, one of the top Vegas favorites in 6-1, does not even crack the top five.

The 2019 Daytona 500 runner-up began on the rod in this race a season before, but ended up finishing in seventh place. The year prior, he had yet another fast ride in qualifying and began the race in third, but ended up in 16th.

Since his win at Atlanta in 2013, Busch has just run 56.7 percent of his laps within the top 15. For his career, he has finished outside the top 10 in 13 of his 20 career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are far better values in this affluent 2019 QuikTrip 500 lineup compared to the 6-1 premium you will want to pay for him.

The model can be targeting three other drivers with 2019 NASCAR in Atlanta chances of 10-1 or even longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anybody who backs these long shots can hit it big.