NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks 2019: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at TicketGuardian 500

The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Following an electric start to the season at Daytona and 2 fast 1.5-mile paths in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Monster Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race at the tighter quarters of the one-mile loop in ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five March races at this track and is the 9-4 favorite to accumulate another win at the most current 2019 TicketGuardian 500 chances. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is getting 16-1, while Kurt Busch is at 30-1 NASCAR in Phoenix chances after a strong start to his season that has him eighth in the NASCAR standings. Before you make your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 picks, make sure you check at the NASCAR in Phoenix projected leaderboard in the SportsLine Projection Model.

Developed by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive information engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track record and recent results into consideration.

It made some enormous calls in NASCAR this past year, including correctly casting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. in Sonoma. Plus it’s off to a powerful start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers in last week’s Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top . Anyone who has followed its selections is way up.

Grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like ISM Raceway have been in his blood. His model has simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For your 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we could tell you that the version is high on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run in the checkered flag despite heading off as a very long shot at 25-1 NASCAR chances. He’s a goal for anyone searching for a massive payday.

Bowyer struck a five-season drought without a win last year and proceeded to catch a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the road to a 12th-place finish in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he’s added a top-five complete at Atlanta and has shown remarkable speed at times. Bowyer has seven career top-10s at Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who pushes for Stewart-Haas Racing, was also second in among this year’s Daytona Duels and closed out last year’s NASCAR schedule with an eight-place ending at Homestead. He will also come armed to the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 using a similar vehicle set up to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

One of those shocking 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix picks from the version: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner at ISM Raceway along with the top Vegas favorite, makes a strong run but falls short of winning everything.

Harvick has made a career out of getting to the front of the pack consistently at this track. In fact, he has finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway